Topic: Nintendo Switch 2 Predictions

@FishyS
I've said it before but I think 256GB is a fairly conservative guess. Then again Nintendo is a fairly conservative company so who knows. I think you're right that 1TB is unlikely (although less crazy than it sounds to old ears) but 512GB I think is very probable. Whatever it has though, microSD cards are cheap and it will have hardware file compression so it probably won't be a huge issue

• 2 SKUs on launch: one all-digital with 512GB internal memory, one with cartridge support and 256GB internal memory
• Backwards compatible digitally and with physical games
• 7" 1080p LCD screen
• Hall-effect joysticks
• Slightly redesigned form factor on Joy-Cons for better grip
• Removal of IR-sensor
• New gimmick: back camera for AR-supported games

@steruphan
The Lite makes sense as a cheaper SKU is because by disabling the dock functionality they can use lower grade SoCs that don't perform as well. The digital only SKUs on XB and PS make sense because by omitting the optical drive you're significantly reducing bulk (shipping) and not having to include a UHD BluRay Drive. Which isn't a cheap component

None of these benefits exist for a digital only SKU for a cartridge based console. The cost of the cartridge slot is near zero and there's no reason to limit a SKU in such a way. I'd say the odds of a digital only SKU existing are close to 0. It makes no sense. If there are multiple SKUs it will be differentiated in the same way the existing Switch SKUs are divided. Screen, storage, performance

@skywake
Maybe. But Nintendo doesn't always make sense, does it? 😂

Edit: I think they might try it to incentivize going all digital.

@FishyS I would also rather 512 GB, but keep in mind normal Switch only has 32 GB (OLED has 64 GB) so they usually don't care about it too much. However since the Switch's launch it seems as if storage is cheaper so it wouldn't be too expensive to hit at least 256GB.

@CJD87 I think Nintendo will want a few major 3rd party games near launch, so possibly? I could also see Monster Hunter Wilds being a big port as well.

@steruphan
Just because what Nintendo does doesn't make sense to the gaming media doesn't mean there isn't any sense to it. They make toys, that's fundamentally what Nintendo is. And when you look at them like that then they start to make a lot more sense

Really, there isn't a whole lot of reason for a digital only SKU for something like the Switch. And honestly the best argument anyone can ever come up with is that they could use it as a way to push digital sales. But, they already incentivise digital sales. So I don't really see the point

Now if they made a SKU that was so compact that there physically wasn't space for a cartridge slot? Then sure. Maybe. If late in the cycle of the Switch 2 (or maybe even the Switch) they want to do a super, super cut priced version of it and the cartridge slot is one of the concessions? Maybe. But I don't think that's something for out of the gate Switch 2 SKUs at launch

If it's still using Joy-cons or something similar the rumoured magnet connector might just replace the physical locking button of the current system - slide into the rail and the magnet locks it in place. As I think others might have mentioned, holding the joy-cons in place with just a magnet probably isn't going to be solid enough.

The magnet rumour also mentioned they were electromagnets which seems a bit odd to me for a portable device as if you need to pass a current through the magnet to work it'll be a constant drain on the battery (and add more heat) - do your controllers just fall off when the battery dies or the console is off?

so......
(prepares archive.org)

If you plot the price per GB of SSDs and thumbdrives over time you get something like this. A pretty clean exponential trend. Note that this INCLUDES inflation, the drop in price including inflation would be more dramatic than this

The maths works out that, almost like clockwork, the amount of flash storage you can buy doubles every ~3 years. And if you adjust all the consoles on that scale? The Premium Wii U SKU was the most generous with storage, if it launched today it would have the equivalent of 512GB. The Wii was the cheapest and if it launched today it would've had only 32GB of storage. The others are.... broadly the same and if they launched today it would be with 128-265GB of storage

But I think it's again worth noting that this is not considering inflation. I don't expect Switch 2 to sell at the same price the original Switch sold at. Which means that if they spent a similar proportion of the BOM cost on storage it's going to have far more storage than it "should" compared to previous Nintendo consoles

I think probably what we'll get is one of two scenarios. Either they launch it with 256GB of storage which would be, more or less, the same amount of storage dollar for dollar as the Switch launched with. Or they go with two SKUs with one at 128GB and a second more premium SKU at 512GB. Which is what they did with the Wii U and also how Valve has approached this. Hell, maybe the 512GB SKU comes with an OLED screen

@skywake Oh wow you did a great job using factual information and industry patterns to predict the next console’s storage!

Personally I think the 256GB makes more sense, as Nintendo doesn’t often have multiple models at launch. I think they’ll stick with what they did with Switch and have one edition at launch, and in a couple years maybe release a budget version and an upgraded version.

@steruphan to add to what @skywake said, I think with volumes Nintendo will want to sell in the first year or two, having multiple SKU's makes manufacturing, the supply chain and marketing more complicated than it it needs to be - it would just cause headaches. I bet we don't see a hardware revision until they have sold 50m units+.

@skywake @FishyS

128GB = Really Nintendo?! - That's just cheap!!
256GB = Well, Nintendo will Nintendo
512GB = Not Bad!!
1TB = Great Job!!!!!

@FishyS 512GB would be lovely for sure... especially as I have the 256GB deck, and know the struggle to fit everything in.
In all honesty though, if Switch2 ticks 'every other box' that was listed - I'd be happy to concede on storage and just grab a 1TB card. Let's see eh!

@PikminMarioKirby I agree, and like you say I am hoping/praying that MH Wilds is part of the launch portfolio! (or later, depending on release schedules)

I wonder if Larian would consider a concerted port of Baldurs 3? They made great efforts in porting Divinity 2...so you never know?

Nintendo definitely need to lean into 3rd party offerings from day 1 though, as I think a broader and more 'mature' offering (alongside the great 1st party offerings) would net a wider audience

@CJD87 When Baldur's Gate 3 came out, the devs said they really wanted it to be on a Nintendo console but it was impossible for Switch. It might not be day 1, but I would be surprised if they didn't port the game to Switch 2; I think it would be a chunk of guaranteed sales to people who only own Switch, myself included. Since Sony seems to have console exclusive rights to a lot of recent Final Fantasy, I think BG3 would also be a good alternative for Nintendo to showcase they can now support some of the bigger third party games.

@FishyS
Count me amongst the people who'd pick it up. Feels like the great game for a portable console

@MarioBrickLayer
Yeah, that tracks. As an anecdote since forever I've always judged the price of storage based on what I'd put into a new personal PC build if I was to do one. And I set myself a budget of ~$120AU. In 2005 that got me a 120GB HDD. My 2014 build was a milestone because it was enough for a 120GB SSD, which I did and paired with some spare HDDs. 2019 I went with a 512GB SSD and that's what I'm still using today

If I was to build a new PC today... looking at the prices I'd throw a 1TB SSD in there. And we're almost at the point now where we're basically at the end of the line. Because with network attached storage there's not really that much need for more than 1TB on a new build....

@FishyS 100% on this.

I played BG3 exclusively on the SteamDeck, and whilst it certainly ran far from 'perfect' - for me it was good enough to be deemed playable, and an incredible feat to have it running in handheld.

Assuming Larian are willing to optimise for Switch2, and make the needed fidelity/graphical concessions for it to run well, I think it could be an absolute system-seller for Nintendo.... not to mention it would open the game up for players who have always been Nintendo-only gamers.

D:OS2 sold very well on Switch, which hopefully incentivises Larian to do similar with BG3 on Switch2

I expect Capcom will also come to the table with native versions of RE7 / RE8 / RE4-make - which would be awesome.

Hades 2 is another obvious one, maybe even for launch (depending on timelines of course)

@CJD87 Any reason to think Hades 2 wouldn't just be on OG Switch? Hades runs extremely well on Switch and came to Switch the same day it came to PC (and long before it was released for PS4/xbox).

Yeah, I'd imagine Hades 2 will still be on Switch. Even if it launches after Switch 2 it's surely one of the many games that will exist in that space of "Switch compatible, Switch 2 enhanced"

The potential of these massive games the Nintendo community largely missed out on, coming to a Nintendo platform has me practically drooling! Would absolutely LOVE to see Baldur's Gate 3 come to Switch 2, and Resident Evil 7 has surprisingly been one of my most replayed games in recent memory (Especially because of the DLC sinking it's claws into me.) Maybe we could finally get native ports of those stinkin' Kingdom Hearts games. The Witcher 3 has already been ported to Switch, how cool would it be for that to get a huge overhaul? It'd certainly be a sweet incentive to upgrade! The mere mention of just those coming to next-gen, in addition to the plethora of so, so many titles I haven't even mentioned. well, let's just say I doubt I'd get very much sleep. And you know what? I'm okay with that. XD

@Novamii tbh, I actually can't think of that many games we missed out on besides Baldur's Gate 3. 🤔 Not counting Final Fantasy rebirth and other games which may be PS5 console exclusives anyways. I'm much more excited by the idea that games we do get may actually run well. It is silly we can't get fully functional versions of games like Another Crab's Treasure which seem perfect for Switch.